Social Mode

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  • I am researching work on the use of cellular automata to model political elections.  In doing that I came across some cool toys.

    Pretty sweet “voting rule” automata demonstration.

    openlaszlo cellular automata demo

     

    Cellular Automata Visuals

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    May 23
  • Pretty basic stuff going on here.

    Some have maligned David A for is “stage kid” approach – meaning parents told him what to do.  Really though, who wouldn’t do the same at this point?  If you had that voice and this situation and only 17 years, wouldn’t you do the same? Of course you would because we all are what we value and what we are reinforced to value.  All that comes about by what we are good at, how our environment reinforces that and the situations opened to us.

    David Cook is no different.  His story is just as cliche.  It’s cliche because of schedules of reinforcement.  Bartender music guy working his ass off auditions. Gets a break.  Beats everyone because of his experience (song selection based on schedules of picking the right or wrong song in the bar!).

    American Idol has the formula so down.  We all eat this up BECAUSE they tell us to eat it up for 20 weeks.  We already bought the album/track just by watching the show.  Cycles and cyles and schedules and schedules.

    I love this show and how it continues to make media folks go, “How can we make this?”

    ~R

    David Cook and David Archuleta

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    May 22
  • N-brain is back at it with coding challenges.  This time it’s public and not secretive at all.  Over Christmas last year, N-brain launched a stealth coding competition to lure job applications and introduce the dev world to their new software development platform, UNA.  I participated in and analyzed this coding competition, almost simultaneously.  

    Since then I’ve chatted with the folks behind n-brain.  They don’t mess around.  These guys know their code and their dev process.  This new competition is even tougher than the first and the prizes are much bigger.

    UNA is a special platform.  Anyone who knows how I code and run projects understand how bold a statement that is for me.  Why?  I very much believe in the solo hacking til it works.  UNA is about group – real time collab.  I usually hate group collab on code and design because the communication and miscommunication gets in the way.  UNA is different because the collaboration is weirdly seamless and actually real time – you all see the same things, you chat inline, code completion just works, everything is tracked, and never once does the group feature take precedence over just coding.

    Anyway… the coding competition is something to pay attention to.  I’ll be analyzing this one as well as I try to uncover more about the how, what and why of developer and creative behavior.  For some insight into how big and serious these types of competitions can get check out this recent feature in Dr. Dobbs.

    As a final note – i sure hope the Visual Studio, Netbeans, Eclipse, Zend, Codeworks, and Nusphere folks pay attention to this and either integrate or buy N-brain.  Seriously, the system is that cool.  Yes, i know visual studio has team services…. trust me the features, price and “lockedin-ness” don’t compare.

    ~R

    Live Audience Coding Competition with N-Brain

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    May 17
  • Genetic drift is one of the infrequently mentioned mechanisms of evolution along with our all-time favorite, natural selection, and the remaining two: mutation and migration.

     

    Genetic drift is a form of selection by consequences.  In genetic drift it is a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. 

    http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evosite/evo101/IIIDGeneticdrift.shtml  

    Unlike natural selection, which operates primarily on the genotype over relatively long time periods, selection by consequences operates on the organism’s phenotype or behavior which is a combination of genetic and environmental factors of the organism that can change over relatively short time periods. 

     

     Genetic drift results in having reduced elements of variability in the population from which natural selection can work.  Some of the variants of the species that were zapped including mutations are no longer available for selection.

     

     Thus, just by chance, a part of the population was wiped out and the surviving organisms would be left to propagate and leave behind more genetic descendents than those that were killed. (dah!) The organisms in subsequent generations would thus be the “lucky” because they didn’t get zapped. 

     

     

    Thus, the next generation organisms are not necessarily a better fit or a product of the survival of the fittest [in the biological sense].  The organisms represent the survival of the luckiest and in so doing, represent genetic drift in that they are there because they avoided the vagaries of chance. 

     

     Genetic drift affects the genetic makeup of the population but, unlike natural selection, these effects are via a random probability set of processes or events. Some gene attributes end due to things outside forces and independent of their behavior.  They are in the wrong spot at the wrong time.

     

     Such is the case with Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, the former Burma.

     

    As if being stepped on in the form of a cyclone, the reclusive and isolated communities of Myanmar have been squished.  With 28,000 known dead and no water, food, or shelter, disease could take up to 1,500,000 people (3% of the population) in the coming months.  They have died for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

     

     

     Besides the huge losses, the callous and unconscionable refusal to deliver aid to its citizens will make the next decade hostile for life in Myanmar.  As a culture ethnically made up Tibetans and Chinese, they are one of the most superstitious cultures on earth.  This doesn’t bode well for changing their situation or for life.  Furthermore, small cultural groups disproportionally make up the ultra militaristic government and social and economic wealth of the country.

     

     

    In a sense, are we seeing the effects of a genetic drift on an entire population take place?  The isolation by both tribes within Myanmar and the entire population as a whole has kept the genetic pool more free of global interaction from outsiders. The harsh military dictatorship and close control of visas has accentuated the effect of keeping the Myanmar people without much genetic variation over the last 40 years.   

     

     

    ·         Do you see a parallel here to genetic drift that results from wiping out a portion of a bird colony or a seals from their breeding grounds?  

    ·         What can we expect in this case?  Are some changes going to occur due to the loss of select tribes [in whole or in part] along the coast that never really intermarried or mingled with those in the deep forests?  

    ·         Is the superstition culturally at play today going to be accentuated or be challenged in an effort to survive?   

    ·         Is it likely that the soothsayers or the fortunetellers will be held accountable for not telling the faithful what was about to happen?

    ·         How is the surviving genetic pool – still isolated by military decree – going to change if they do change?

     

    GENETIC DRIFT AND MYANMAR…

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    May 13
  • My local Chevron now features a video display on top of the pump that tells you they only profit between $.03-$.12/gallon on the gas you’re buying.

    Yup, they are making a plea for you not to complain about their prices and bring your car back because the gas station only makes $.03/gallon.  Oh, and please pay cash because the credit card fees cut into their profit. Hahahahaha.

    a) marketing department should have made the video to say it COSTS the hard working gas station folks $3.97/gallon to serve you.

    b) Gas Stations make a lot of money, but not on gas.  Really, i didn’t know. 😉

    They obviously understand behavior and buying affinities, so they should use that knowledge to better effect.  Undercut pricing of supermarkets on milk, diapers and eggs and market the fact, “We Understand the Economic Crunch.”  People will still buy the 95% margin coffee and energy drinks if they can get the gas, milk, eggs, and diapers cheaper.

    It’s unlikely consumers will feel much pity for gas company that the current gas price pump ads attempt to generate.  They will appreciate cheaper prices on necessities and maybe even attribute empathy to the gas stations and oil companies.

    Oh, and if cash makes them more money, they should put ATMs at the pump so people have cash on hand more often.

    ~R

     

    Gas Stations Understand Behavior

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    May 12
  • Have you tried many of these “green” products out there?  The cleaners, the lightbulbs, the hybrid cars, and all the other end a round products intended to reduce your output of non-green/bad for the environment stuff…  

    I have.

    Most of these products suck.

    Dishes take 3 times to clean in the dishwasher.  Clothes still smell after 2 washes.  Hybrids can’t haul your stores groceries from the distribution centers to your shelves.  The lights barely can light a room and will poison you if you break them.

    Are these just “beta products” that we’ll figure out and improve… or is that what green is?  A label on a watered down product that gets you to consume more energy, but in non obvious ways.  

    God, the Green Movements marketing ROCKS!

    Concerned about the well being of humankind?  Try improving health care and wellness.  We’re bound to save more lives by improving health care than curbing the heating of the earth 100 years from now (yes, go to Wikipedia or your information source of choice to find out how much this “greening” effort is actually going to help stall warming, save the planet, save mankind…).  How can so many people get fired up about Saving the Planet but can’t get fired up about Health Care Reform?

    Yeah, it’s the marketing.  Yeah, it’s our history of behavior.  Yes, it’s what we have come to value.  Or rather, what it costs us to “feel like we’re making a difference.”  That’s one of the key things about the Green Movement that other social movements haven’t figured out – how to make people feel like they are making a difference even when all they do is buy a different brand.  Health care, education and peace movements all require too much effort from an individual on a topic/issue/situation that may not directly, daily impact them.  The requirements pushed out by the leading organizations behind the non-Green issues are too high for what people get out of them. Today.

    Consider this quip for fun…

    Global Warming gets blockbuster movies like The Day After Tomorrow to scare everyone into greening up.

    Health Care gets SiCKO.

    I’ve seen SiCKO once, and my family is in it.

    I’ve seen Day After Tomorrow 4 times, once without audio on a plane.

    Global Warming gets 100 websites, social networks, Global Rock Concerts, CurrenTV.

    Health care gets… some brochure-ware websites and some old congressmen.

    I can go to the store and buy a Green Friendly lightbulb to Save The Planet.  I can fight with Aetna for two years to reduce my premium on preventative care.

    If health care reformers want to make an impact now, they need to figure out the marketing.  Make it immediate, make it now, make it reinforcing, and make it easy.  And don’t forget the sex appeal, afterall Global Warmings coverboy is Al Gore.

    ~R

     

    Global Warming Marketing vs. Health Care Reform Marketing

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    May 12
  • Man, like I always say… whatever you think is new, cool and uniquely your idea, assume someone else is working on it.

    Consider this patent some slashdotter’s uncovered from Microsoft.  This is very similar to my idea I outlined here on this blog combined with one of my other ideas.

    Oh well.  I guess I better hurry up and build these things.  At the very least, there’s validation that these ideas aren’t completely insane and maybe worth doing sooner rather than later.

    Cool.

    Happy Mother’s Day.

    Microsoft’s Guardian Angel

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    May 11
  • A couple of posts ago I made a mistake in my data assumptions on the number of movies in available for recommendation.  IMBD gives a better idea… i was off by about 20x.  hahaha.  yikes.

    The other day i was making a point to someone about how the blog medium promotes research laziness.  Here I prove my own point.  Painful.  Luckily this same medium allows you to print retractions, updates, and improvements uber fast.

    ~R

     

    Blogs Promote Research Laziness

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    May 10
  •  

    Nargis was fate!

     

    May 9, 2008

    With a gaping look of angst similar to what played out during the Katrina catastrophe in this country, the heads of state around the world are trying to “help” Myanmar’s military ruler, Than Shwe, respond to Cyclone Nargis.

    Problems abound. 

    • Over 100,000 people are dead; millions homeless and starving
    • Than Shwe is a military dictator that didn’t get complete control of the idyllic former Burma by trusting carpet baggers.
    • They have one of the more superstitious cultures on Earth
    • Cities are cut off from food, water, communication and shelter
    • As a country they compare well with Cuba as repressive and reclusive

    President Bush said that “We’re prepared to move US Navy assets to help find those people who need help” but I am sure he meant the Seabees and not the military part of the Navy.  But, as usual, the 3rd item above may be the most critical for NOT being able to help than the others but, of course, there are always multiple causes for behavior, political or individual.

     

    Everyone in Myanmar relies on soothsayers, fortunetellers and spiritualism to make their decisions at every level of the society.  It is all the rage.  So, not just the generals and the government bureaucrats don’t want the help, the people themselves have a conflict in that they need to eat today but they believe in fate as a way of life; Nargis was their fate!  That means they have to consult their spiritual leaders mentioned above.

     

    There is a separate layer of logic or influence that controls the behavior of the leaders and the citizens that has a bigger influence than the life and death struggle they are waging right now.  It is almost like an organized ‘thing’ they do.  What this means in a bigger sense, those that want to help better be sensitive to the belief systems of the leaders or they won’t get anything done.  Sound familiar? 

     

    The consequences of all this are bountiful for those trying to figure it out.  Bottom line for the people in Myanmar:

    • What I value may conflict with what you value
    • What I believe is of value to me more than what you believe
    • I value going to the advisor, soothsayer, fortuneteller to get direction
    • I am subject to my fate

    We’re lucky – knock on wood – that we live in a democracy where we exercise free choice to go to church and exercise our free will by voting that prevents dictators from overstepping the bounds of our government – except in Michigan and Florida – and for having institutions that take care of us without strings attached and provide for us during times of need.  We should all go and pray that Myanmar’s kind autocratic bullying and superstition never takes root on American soil. 

     

    Now if I just had enough money for gas I’d go light a candle in the darkness at my church.  I’ll have to walk even though it is raining.  Better not open my umbrella in the house.  It might catch that ladder over the doorway and scare Chester my black cat across my path.

     

    After a Bloomberg.com article By En-Lai Yeoh

    Cyclone of Consequences: Myanmar Misery via Superstition

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    May 9
  • http://www.netflixprize.com/leaderboard

    Check out the leaderboard.  The recent progress by the top four teams has been impressive recently.

    BellKor should win this within 2 months.  They also showcase a key point in their blog.  To achieve practical results you don’t need a crazy model with a lot of predictors.

    I’ve yet to figure out why they spend $1,000,000 on this algorithm and/or the press/buzz in generated.  Their own algos and business rules do almost as well as this already.  But, hey, if you have $1,000,000 laying around to give to some smart researchers, great!

    ~R

    Netflix Prize Nearly Solved

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    May 9
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