Social Mode

UPDATE 1-US weekly jobless claims surge to 16-year high
Reuters – 11/20/08 – 1 hour ago

US weekly jobless claims shoot up to 542000 MarketWatch

Boeing layoff of 800 rattles Wichita aircraft economy

HP to possibly layoff 25,000 world wide coincident with merger with EDS

(Update) UTMB Begins Process Of Laying Off 3000 Employees dBTechno

Brady Corp. posts slight 1Q sales dip, announces layoffs
The restructuring means layoffs for about 800 of Brady’s 8000 workers worldwide.

We all know the difficult and sometimes devastating consequences from layoffs from employment. Yes, there is a ripple effect of the shops and the Blackberry sales and the BMWs and the ‘this and that’ affected in the years to come.

All these represent, [say it with me…] “CHANGES IN CONTINGENCIES”.

There is the change in contingencies from what controls the people employed that need to be redeployed by cities and states to control contingencies of the people wanting a job, unemployment benefits, food from food banks and such. There is the toll on children, handicapped, and those with marginal skills that were working just to exist. All their contingencies change as well only they are not any more a part of the statistics than are the one-room developers working for Macy’s or Mama Mia’s.

All these things are tough. But they are tough for other reasons than given or obsessed over a $5 Starbucks coffee [also laying off and closing retail stations]. That reason is the wholesale breakage in the schedules we have. Hold on. Think about it. We are consumed by work and the things that lead to it and result from it. We normally groan about traffic, litter, bosses, colleagues, food, time and other highly emotional elements. We have all these things on schedules. They are intertwined with each other to a point where changing one, (Starbucks is too crowded at lunch) is met with a lot of travail and consternation in the process of searching for another hangout.

Now consider that for the unemployed, there may be 12,000 to 50,000 changes in what that person does on a weekly basis.
- Oh, did I mention they have no behavior to replace those 12,000 – 50,000 “things” that they did?
- Did I mention they have ‘get a new job’ skills ‘cause those behaviors haven’t been used in six years?
- Did I mention they don’t see people that they considered of value?
- Did I mention they don’t see the affect of doing work they maybe linked and were good at?
- Did I mention they aren’t getting paid any more?
- Oh, and don’t forget the change in value they have of themselves… they are not there and others are there…”What gives with that?”
One solution is to create new schedules. FAST! Immersion into creating behavior for getting a new job as quickly as possible and, in the process, hang out with more positive people, dump all toxic people, don’t drink $5 coffee or attend to any dome and gloom stories from the talking heads. Ignore it all. Those things are out there whether you know about them or not and you can’t effect any of it. Use those social networks you surreptitiously spent time on while working…

Things will come around again if you behave! For now, find some behavior and get back on some new schedules.
Their bailout, your unemployment and changes in schedules

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Nov 20
are there any absolute truths?

if “no”, then is that an absolute truth?

Refer to Tarski’s Undefinability Theorem.

I enjoyed this guys write up on some details of the theorem.

or maybe you want to play with coherence theory?

or maybe you should just see how others arbitrage the search for truth in pursuit of google rank!

hahahahah.

peace.

My Friday Search for Absolute Truth and Tarski’s Undefinability Theorem

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Nov 14
In the area of algorithmic trading alone, industry estimates by the Aite Group predict
that by 2010, 50% of U.S., 28% of European and 16% of Asian order flow will be executed automatically via trading algorithms [1]. With about 8.5 billion shares currently being
traded daily in the US this would equate to the automatic trading
of $120 billion of stock in current money terms.

* [1] Algos 3.0, Developments in Algorithmic Trading, Traders Magazine 2007. Special Report.
SourceMedia’s Custom Publishing Group.

Computational Intelligence Magazine, from IEEE

For a very general overview of Algorithmic Trading, hit this Wikipedia entry.

If you want sort of an “insiders look” at all this, head over to Advanced Trader magazine.

To see the very limited amount of research on the impacts, check out these various book resources:

Google Books on Algo Trading

Amazon

I’ve seen almost no analysis of how algo trading impacts economies. WIth 30-50% of the money changing hands in the stock market every day based on these algos, it would seem highly improbably that algo trading isn’t a significant departure from traditional/human-based trading behavior.

How much of these wild stock swings are the result of velocity algos going nutso?

How do we verify the algos do what we want?

Also note that the average trade size has dropped from 1200 to 300 – this matters a lot. Large volume trades typically are indicators to human traders. With large trades vanishing, the data stream is different than it used to be.

If someone has some clear, understandable research (not HowTos) on algo trading theory, send it along.

Algorithmic Trading and its Impact on Economic Theory

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Nov 14
Well, we knew it would come. We just didn’t know when.

Google Voice Search is coming… (here’s the story on mashable)

Here was my concept for “Google Aware” (which I never claimed was original… in fact, i think it’s an obvious extension to many technologies). I should have finished it. Oh well. Sometimes great ideas are just damn hard to pull off with limited time and marketing resources.

One of the key points in the NYTimes article is the fact that Google has the ability to analyze all the data coming through that pipe and that will be what makes the difference in quality. Just recognizing voice and passing it to search isn’t that tough… (heck even I can code that with some libraries). It’s training this system over time.

Anyhoo. Cool stuff. Everything Computes! It’s happening.

Google Voice Search

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Nov 14
Like a flu virus in a preschool lunch room, the question comes up every 6 months or so as to “Why do children lie?” and “What does it mean?” and “What do you do about it?” The latest incarnation was on CNN/health in a Parenting.com article.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/family/11/12/why.kids.lie/index.html

There is huge divergence out there on the answers to the above questions. Even when the conclusions are correct, like Michael Brody, M.D. who correctly says “There’s nothing wrong with telling it [a lie]” he’s grossly mistaken when he says that, “Very young kids don’t know the difference between truth and fiction.”

And again later in the CNN article, when it states “It doesn’t make sense to punish toddlers for truth bending, since they don’t get that what they’re doing is wrong.” Right conclusion for the wrong reasons, again.

Alix Finkelstein in her book, Baby Name Tool Data Set and her article “Baffling Kid Behavior – Explained” subtitled “Why they say one thing and then do another — and how to know what they really want” concludes with the assessment that is chilling: “Kids are a bundle of contradictory impulses.”

So, what do the above proclamations tell us? Can these authorities with all these published works and fancy letters after their name be mistaken?

It is very clear; children can tell what contingencies are operating in different contexts as well as when those contingencies change. They understand counter-control before the parents are driven to pap in doctor office magazine racks for clues on what “counter-control” means.

Parents are the one’s that have been deceived and have not been told the truth. For instance, parents are told that the ‘Terrible twos’ is just a phase that the children go through, etc. That period boils down to the children learning rules – everyone’s rules, faster than the parents learning the children’s rules. They and teachers and ‘authorities’ see no inconsistencies with encouraging their children they can be President of the United States some day [or a princess or baseball player] with that same child also needing different strategies of how to navigate the politics of third grade.

The enveloping scheme here though is the different rule sets the parents have that conflict with the rule sets the child have.

Ask the 3 year olds living on the streets of Rio de Janeiro without parents if they know the difference between truth and fiction. Ask the four year olds working in the factories around the world if they can tell the difference between right and wrong, good and bad or about ‘truth’. Ask the five year olds in Bagdad, Darfur, Mexico City, NYC, Moscow and Rome if they understand the rules (contingencies) for telling the truth, lying and what is fiction. Consequences control behavior. Get over it and on with life.

We all live in a world of fantasy and reality. Telling the difference is not easy for children and it is not easy for adults who have been given license to be uncritical of what controls behavior. It is not made easier with superstition and traditions that foster fantasy masked as reality – Christmas – the Easter Bunny – grandpa is now sleeping in heaven – mommy is busy – when the child senses what is going on and it is not what is reported to be going on.

For a child to NOT pick up the differences on what is going on and what he or she is told defines a level of what all parents dread more than anything…the child is a dolt! For parents to NOT manage these relationships with communication supports the contention that parents don’t understand behavior –theirs or their children’s – any better than Finkelstein does above with her assessment that “Kids are a bundle of contradictory impulses.”

Here is a list of scenarios that lead to lying. Can you tell which are for children and which are for adults?
- Boredom – lack of stimulation and social attention
- Anger over some broken rules by others
o Betrayal

o Frustration

o Their own rules conflict
- Seeking material gain
- Mimicry
- Story telling to connect things that seem unconnected
- They want the lie to be the truth
- Escape / avoidance from aversive stimulation
I can’t tell either.
Why kids lie… The TRUTH can finally be told…

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Nov 13
We are about to go into a “phase” as my mother used to refer to my dependence on a specific set of terms, ideas or behavior. That phase is going to be around for awhile and it’s going to drive us nuttier than a 4 year presidential election campaign. It is a ‘racism’ phase and it will end up giving the neocons apoplexy, the centrists gout, and the make the left wingnuts tongue-tied.

No. racism doesn’t have to be black vs. white. If you think that you haven’t had to be paying attention. It can be British vs. French, Indian vs. Pakistani and a hundred other real or imagined lines of descendence that we think makes a difference. It is all the same racism.

And it is now open verbiage to be applied to uncritical street cred and maniacal approaches to everything imaginable. You are racist if you want secure boarders. You are a racist if you don’t care one way or another. You are racist if you want a strong UN. You are raciest if you want your children to go to public – private – parochial or military school (pick).

As for those that think we have a black President it must be dead, pleassssseeee! Spend some time in the south, in the north, east, west, in prison, on a cruise ship, in a space program…

Know racism is not dead. It is not even sick. It is alive and well and willing to come out with a joke, a glace, a decision to stay home from the blues concert. It is euphemism expressed openly. It is seen in almost any non- SNL skit where “nudge – nudge, wink – wink” says it all. It is at every eatery you drive thru or opulently satiate yourself at as well as every level of management seeking a vision to hide our primitivism. It is convoluted, reverse, covert, overt and illegal. It is in front of you and it is behind you. Worst of all, it will never die any more than fear that generates it will be die.

In the end, it is an abject announcement that ‘my cave is better than your cave’ and that I am more in charge of my future if and only if I can make some entity less so that I will be more. It is yours for use as long as you are willing to accept ‘Diversity training’ for your transgressions. It is yours for use as long as you can point to your involvement in affirmative action pamphleteering or some absurd “Guilt-be-gone!” behavior equivalent to two wrongs make a right.

As complex interacting humans that are endlessly pressured to define who we are, we need to call people on their use of racism, and be called on ours, in communications of all sorts. Just ask, “What do you mean?” Otherwise, its easy use will morph to an all encompassing modifier to give credence to our position or shock value to our voice.

So, now we need to turn our phasers on and be ready to shoot down, stun or punctuate any conversation or ink that rides the coattails of an Obama victory to profess their new slant on bigotry.

Is that racism I see coming? Set your phasers to ‘stun’

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Nov 11
I’m embarrassed to say I know next to nothing about the history of Southern California. And it is a most fascinating history that starts with a fascinating culture – The Chumash.

You can gather the history from other sources. What surprised me was the speed at which the Chumash population disappeared. In 1769 a Spanish expedition arrived along the Santa Barbara coast and within 60 years this population was a mere 10% of its peak.

No, not a unique tale at that time.

What’s remarkable is that this coastline had been inhabited by largely isolated bands of Chumash for at least 10,000 years. In 60 years, poof.

The Chumash society was fairly complex with all the tricked out social things we “expect” – currency, division of labor, geo political systems, etc. etc. Of particular interest is that this culture was a hunter-gather culture, not yet farming. Again, not a totally unique tale, but certainly more rare and worthy of study to understand how various aspects of culture play out under less common contingencies.

The language is very cool and is what’s called linguistic isolate – this language was not derived from any other language. There are many isolates (language has to start somewhere!), so that’s not unique (look at a few more from North America). What is unique goes back to the idea that this language had basically been developed in isolation for well over 10,000 years. Again, not unique, but rare and probably worth more intensive study.

Plenty more to research. I’m working through the first book in this list of publications from UC Press.

Cool stuff.

Chumash of Southern California

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Nov 11
Dear Fellow Voters,

Thank you for voting today. I had the honor to handle 614 of your ballots. I handled all but 12 of those 614 with my own hands. Thank you for trusting me to deliver your vote to the registrar.

Many of you expressed fear about whether your vote would actually be counted or “count” in the bigger sense. Unfortunately I can only provide you the same answer I tell myself – better to put it in the box than to not. If you don’t put it in the box, you know you don’t count.

Many of you were new to this experience. I congratulate you and implore you to reflect and cherish the moment. Then consider how you will return each and every time to poll with a similar enthusiasm. All to often we lose the passion to research our values and leaders and compile a statement of those values. Worse yet, we often mistake the hassle of getting our vote in as wasted energy instead of the necessary effort it is that enables others to understand our values.

Los Angeles had over 82% voter turn out, a record for LA. Thank you. Engagement is what matters, much more than how you voted. Not voting ensures no that no one knows where we stand as a community. With 82% or more voting there is now a very public record of where we stand.

By 7:15am we had a line going out as far as I could see. You came early so you were sure to get the vote in.

Polls at the opening

You found a way to fight the chaotic layout and minimal morning staff.

Inside the Polling Place

And when it finally died down, the sun set beautifully outside of the polling place. Many of us took a break from voting and tallying to enjoy where we live.

Unbelievable End To The Day, snapped outside the polling place

That sunset is worth more than 1000 words, maybe even another 1000 words.

Man, look at that sunset from my ballot box one more time…

Thank you for affirming my belief in doing little things, like volunteering for the polls. None of us really know how much impact we have on the bigger world. I do know today Los Angeles county had the largest voter turnout in the country, more than most states in the country. I do know that the 614 votes I handled made a statement. I do know that I met 10 other community folks that love where they live and took time away from their lives to service your ballots. I do know being alone or standing alone sucks and today no one stood alone.

And yes, selfishly, I got some free meals and coffee.

Thanks again,

Russ

Thank You For Voting

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Nov 5
Sure beats my “Man in Mirror” knock off I did in 7th grade.

Kick ass.

Vote However You Like

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Oct 31
I present to you a principle of mine relevant to releasing websites and web software.

You Don’t Really Know Until It’s Live Principle

Basic Idea:

No one Looks At Anything Until it’s Publicly Released. Then it’s a frenzy of real feedback.

The implications:
- There is no better QA that real users on real software on real hardware in the real world
- You can’t experience software unless you get the full experience in the real world, real set up (and I mean EXPERIENCE, not test or click or review)
- the Halting Problem applies big time – that is, you won’t know what breaks a site/service/software until something breaks it. Even the best unit tests and XP efforts won’t uncover all the halts
It’s been true for the last 78 pieces of software I’ve worked on…

Why does this principle hold?

a) the consequences (the stakes!) are very high when a piece of software is LIVE. Thus it is very reinforcing for people to give feedback and really dig in. (oh shit, it’s live!)

b) Technology obstacles and lots of caveats usually hold in prototypes, mocks and dev sites (oh, ignore that link, we didn’t get to that yet)

c) Websites are very complicated, especially ones where you have lots of mixed media, complete design overall, a new backend, aggregation, and so forth. Mocks can never showcase the full experience and experiential bugs are impossible to uncover unless you are in the flow.

So spare yourself the agony of deciding when to release or trying to be perfect on public release. Just release. You’ll get on with the fixing and improvement cycle sooner.
Why Beta Release Software Matters

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Oct 31