Social Mode

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  • Check out this bit of info from the Official Google Blog!

    Based on their graph of searches per hour and assuming at $5-7 eCPM on searches  and an estimate of 500,000,000-1,000,000,000 searches per day (or 21,000,000 to 42,000,000 searches per hour)* ….

    Google lost over 20,000,000 queries during the inauguration or $100,000-140,000 on search.

    Assuming a similar loss of general traffic across the web it cost Google an additional $40,000-60,000 in AdWords revenue.

    Wow.  that’s a lot of ad revenue to lose for about a 1 hour interuption.  I suppose CNN, Facebook, and other news outlets picked up that extra ad traffic.

    *Based on 2008 comscore reports and UU estimates from quantcast.

    * My estimates for revenue per hour roughly equate to the quarterly earnings after you do all the math to roll it up.  So the eCPM and searchs per hour seem to be solid assumptions.

    Inauguration Day Cost to Google

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    Jan 21
  • In yet another confounding of the same sitatuion we see played out over and over in thousands of published studies, Seed gives us a report on how moral decisions are contextual.

    “No, the results did not surprise us,” says Lindenberg. “What surprised us was the size of the effect.”

    This is not unlike the findings from last week’s feature on social conformity we found on CNN.  What’s different is the more sound conclusions from these researchers.

    It’s not that good people turned bad, either. One goal simply surpassed another in importance. In the case of the mailbox, the desire for cash superceded the desire to behave appropriately, because others already hadn’t. “People are not bad. People are just subject to social influence,” Lindenberg says. An effective tip for crime prevention is to be aware of norm violations on all fronts. After all, says Lindenberg, “Even old grandmothers would do this.”

    Values are contingent and contextual.  Ain’t no good and evil, bad and good.  Only situations and consequences.

    Chaos begets Chaos? aka Behavior Selection by Consequences

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    Jan 21
  • I suppose some might consider it a good thing that the Economics Oracles are starting to make far less definitive statements and/or predictions.

    Consider the following:

    • A fantastic series of questions and answers from BBC to leading UK economicist types
    • The growth in sales for The Black Swan (a book about the impossibility of economic prediction)
    • This type of statement found in a profile of 8 young economists: “Economics is now defined neither by its subject matter nor by its method.”

    Someone pointed out to me that I hold this view that economists might not know as much as they claim to because I don’t really know that much about economic theory.  That’s true.

    However, it is highly unlikely that the current situation is understood by anyone, much less was it accurately predicted.  Worse, no one really has a defensible plan of action – economicly speaking.

    I posit that there is no way to predict the economy in a far reaching/come up with a national plan kinda way.  Like much of what we study, we can understand isolated systems and behaviors.  With that useful knowledge we can proceed adjusting our courses in a million ways as we go along.  In the end, we just need to make something happen.  We need to CREATE and SHAPE what happens next, not predict it.

    In that way, it seems very freeing to not be under the constant pressure of the Down Jones average or the Fed rate cuts.  The world has always been more complex than that and we’re swimming in that complexity.

    Economic Soothsaying Dying with the Rest of The Economy

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    Jan 21
  • There’s something telling (to me at least) in IBM’s earnings report.  CNBC gives us this brief insight:

    Revenue in services, IBM’s largest business segment, dropped 4 percent, but IBM was able to ink $17.2 billion in new services contracts. That was a healthy showing that demonstrates companies are still forking out for outsourcing and other technical support contracts, which are often viewed as moneysavers in the long run.

    Hardware revenue fell 18 percent. Mainframe revenue fell 6 percent, and sales of lower-end servers based on industry-standard processors fell 32 percent.

    “IBM has enjoyed certain attributes that other tech stocks don’t enjoy. They have recurring revenue streams that also translate into profitability,” said Keith Wirtz, chief investment officer for Fifth Third Asset Management. “That’s great for IBM and that’s one of the reasons why, in today’s uncertain environment, IBM’s a very attractive name to hold.”

    Hardware and big cash outlay technical things aren’t going to work in the short term. There’s going to be very little investment in non-core development and experimental concepts.  This is about function, utility and making it work.

    Friends and peers ask me what I think are some strategies for online media and tech companies in light of all this.  As IBM is doing… cut costs via software and services efficiencies.  Pretty straightfoward.  If you are worker, agency, contractor, employee that provides software services more cheaply than others, you’re going to do fine.  The same was true in the dotcom bust.  Those folks that could accomplish the work of 3 and not need a “top of line computer” to do it, maintained a healthy paycheck and a pretty decent workload.

    This is the year of maintenance, not upgrade or investment. (look at Microsoft’s earnings or Apple’s.)  Reruns, nights in, used cars, after market tickets, ebay…

    Advertising will be in the tank for awhile.

    Hardware will be in the tank.

    Financial services built on non core purchase money will be in the tank.

    Services that make it cheaper to live, work, travel will thrive.  For developers and media people, it’s time to focus on service infrastructure.

    This isn’t too tough.  It’s about sausage making and if that isn’t sexy to you, probably best to take a vacation this year.

    Media and Tech Strategies in 2009

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    Jan 21
  • Outside of the oath and benediction speech, the Jason Wu designed dress was the most discussed, blogged, reported media factoid during this crazy inauguration.

    Jason Wus Michelle Obama Dress
    Jason Wu's Michelle Obama Dress

    So what’s all that free press worth?

    So far, almost no traffic reported on Jason Wu’s site up until Jan 20th.

    By the fact that the site is even up means perhaps not much internet business comes from all this press.

    Google Trends shows a nice spike, but the name Jason Wu doesn’t even come close to Superbowl or inauguration.

    Jason Wu Michelle Obama Dress
    Jason Wu Michelle Obama Dress

    Unfortunately, we’re just going to have to wait and see what impact this worldwide acclaim has for a designer.  Perhaps fashion design is simply not measured accurately by online traffic.  I suspect with my somewhat educated knowledge of the fashion industry and media that his reputation is now very secure and that will be a very lucrative career.  He’s only 26!

    Jason Wu – Michelle Obama’s Impact on Business

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    Jan 21
  • New whitehouse.gov design
    New whitehouse.gov design???

    Check out the new White House site.  Just released.

    Much better than the old site.

    Man, what a subtle but important change we’ll get with government, I hope.  Websites that don’t suck.

    Couple of notes: They need SEO help.  The pagetitles aren’t as descriptive as they could be.  i.e. the blog is just called “blog”, not White House Blog.  Oh well.

    It’s not clear how to get the alerts.  the one little email box is not clear enough.

    The use of YouTube as the video solution is a bit weird for me.  You’d think they’d want direct control over that asset.

    The use of the giant mantel up top is a fad.  in 2 years sites like that will look dated, hopefully they will keep updating the design.  Hopefully it won’t look as dated as that 1997 screenshot above. hahahaha

    CNN’s coverage here.

    Good Sign for Government Web Design

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    Jan 20
  • If you’re looking for Obama’s Inaugration speech transcript ABC news has a decent page with it. CNN does as well.

    The BENEDICTION transcript is presented below.

    watch the video:

    or read the transcript (I found it in the comments posted below [thanks!] and here):

    Transcript courtesy Federal News Service

    God of our weary years, God of our silent tears, thou who has brought us thus far along the way, thou who has by thy might led us into the light, keep us forever in the path, we pray, lest our feet stray from the places, our God, where we met thee, lest our hearts, drunk with the wine of the world, we forget thee. Shadowed beneath thy hand may we forever stand — true to thee, O God, and true to our native land.

    We truly give thanks for the glorious experience we’ve shared this day. We pray now, O Lord, for your blessing upon thy servant, Barack Obama, the 44th president of these United States, his family and his administration. He has come to this high office at a low moment in the national and, indeed, the global fiscal climate. But because we know you got the whole world in your hand, we pray for not only our nation, but for the community of nations. Our faith does not shrink, though pressed by the flood of mortal ills.

    For we know that, Lord, you’re able and you’re willing to work through faithful leadership to restore stability, mend our brokenness, heal our wounds and deliver us from the exploitation of the poor or the least of these and from favoritism toward the rich, the elite of these.

    We thank you for the empowering of thy servant, our 44th president, to inspire our nation to believe that, yes, we can work together to achieve a more perfect union. And while we have sown the seeds of greed — the wind of greed and corruption, and even as we reap the whirlwind of social and economic disruption, we seek forgiveness and we come in a spirit of unity and solidarity to commit our support to our president by our willingness to make sacrifices, to respect your creation, to turn to each other and not on each other.

    And now, Lord, in the complex arena of human relations, help us to make choices on the side of love, not hate; on the side of inclusion, not exclusion; tolerance, not intolerance.

    And as we leave this mountaintop, help us to hold on to the spirit of fellowship and the oneness of our family. Let us take that power back to our homes, our workplaces, our churches, our temples, our mosques, or wherever we seek your will.

    Bless President Barack, First Lady Michelle. Look over our little, angelic Sasha and Malia.

    We go now to walk together, children, pledging that we won’t get weary in the difficult days ahead. We know you will not leave us alone, with your hands of power and your heart of love.

    Help us then, now, Lord, to work for that day when nation shall not lift up sword against nation, when tanks will be beaten into tractors, when every man and every woman shall sit under his or her own vine and fig tree, and none shall be afraid; when justice will roll down like waters and righteousness as a mighty stream.

    Lord, in the memory of all the saints who from their labors rest, and in the joy of a new beginning, we ask you to help us work for that day when black will not be asked to get back, when brown can stick around — (laughter) — when yellow will be mellow — (laughter) — when the red man can get ahead, man — (laughter) — and when white will embrace what is right.

    Let all those who do justice and love mercy say amen.

    AUDIENCE: Amen!

    REV. LOWERY: Say amen —

    AUDIENCE: Amen!

    REV. LOWERY: — and amen.

    AUDIENCE: Amen! (Cheers, applause.)

    ————-

    My thoughts:

    Good news!  Non believers got some representation!

    For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus – and non-believers.

    There’s a particularly elegant quip on power:

    Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

    I also thought this bit in the benediction was good:

    When the tanks are beaten into tractors

    Good stuff.

    Now back to work.

    Share around for others to find it…

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    President Obama’s Inauguration Speech Transcript and Dr. Joseph E. Lowery’s Benediction Transcript

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    Jan 20
  • When the inauguration is over will the work really begin?

    It is a strange thing to me that while we sink trillions of taxpayer dollars into bailouts and rail against AIG (and others) for spending frivolously, we then throw one of the biggest inaugurations ever.  Who pays for that?

    What about the loss of productivity today?  at least 3 hours of corporate time for each person… what about the government work not getting done?

    I’m obviously not the first to note this.  And, no, I did not agree with the expense when GWB spent a similar amount last go around.

    Let’s celebrate modestly and get on with the real work.

    Post Inauguration Work

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    Jan 20
  • There’s a bit of a rant against Belkin paying people to talk positively about their products in reviews on commerce sites.

    Users cry foul.  Blogs rail. Someone will probably get fired or reprimanded.

    [Update 1/19/09: And here’s the letter from the CEO.  Read between the lines.  Someone got in trouble]

    And it’s all over something that’s the oldest trick in the book. And is used far more than bloggers, magazines, advertisers, publishers, tv studios and users want to admit.

    In fact, TechCrunch is one of the biggest offenders.  Sure, it doesn’t post payment terms on Mechanical Turk, but it does definitely feature favorable / traffic generating articles for a specific set of companies and products.  Maybe it’s only out of proximity to silicon valley or the network of connections of its author but it’s still biased and borderline advertorial.

    Let’s get real, people.

    Advertorial is a fact of the media and retail ecology.  There are certainly more aggressive efforts by some (such as Belkin) but I have yet to meet an ad agency that doesn’t employ an “organic positive word of mouth” strategy.

    It’s called promotion, folks.  It’s worked very well for info-mercials (paid actors dramatizing the product).  It’s worked very well for direct marketing.

    How is it functionality different than the individual users who post on Amazon or New Egg BEFORE a product even hits the streets?  Typically big brands have this positive fan base that will say anything that produce WILL be good, regardless of whether they use the product or not.  Do these same ranters have a problem with that?  Just think back to the huge amount of traffic Techcrunch and other bloggers received for SPECULATING on the iphone.

    There seems to be some line advertisers can’t cross.  Some sacred “collective intelligence” tools should not be used for “dramatized promotion.” Yet, Google, the portal homepages, most tech magazines, news, tv shows, and almost all of Press Releases are full of this over-the-line-corruption-of-the-users-domain.

    Speaking of press releases… is the whole idea of press release just as offensive?  Press release pose as news but are nothing more than advertorial.  Have you ever written a press release? ever been quoted in one?  The whole thing is fairly questionable.  Yet, the news media lives on press releases.

    Again, let’s keep it real.

    The vast wealth so far created online is mostly due to this battle between ad dollars corrupting the user domain.  Why else would VCs and big companies fund these online companies if there wasn’t some advertising game to play?  The only reasons to develop online services is to get eyeballs or sell products.  The only reason you want eyeballs is to sell products.

    Is there some line we can draw that says it’s “false advertising” or a subversion of the trust of the public?  I don’t think so.

    No online product that allows user contributions and expects to make money running ads or selling products can escape the scourage of dramatized promotion.  Nor should it want to.  You probably don’t matter as a service if people don’t try to abuse your system.

    Advertorial is wrong? Crunchgear meet Kettle.

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    Jan 17
  • Check out what I just put out to the world:

    Get some perspective

    get some perspective with the social bucket list application, need perspective, on facebook.

    This is really just a labor of love.  Life’s very short.  I have some 15,000 days left.  I plan to exhaust my bucket list.

    Do you?

    Perspective: Get some. Give some.

    Need perspective in this time of change?

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    Jan 17
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