Social Mode

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  • I suppose some might consider it a good thing that the Economics Oracles are starting to make far less definitive statements and/or predictions.

    Consider the following:

    • A fantastic series of questions and answers from BBC to leading UK economicist types
    • The growth in sales for The Black Swan (a book about the impossibility of economic prediction)
    • This type of statement found in a profile of 8 young economists: “Economics is now defined neither by its subject matter nor by its method.”

    Someone pointed out to me that I hold this view that economists might not know as much as they claim to because I don’t really know that much about economic theory.  That’s true.

    However, it is highly unlikely that the current situation is understood by anyone, much less was it accurately predicted.  Worse, no one really has a defensible plan of action – economicly speaking.

    I posit that there is no way to predict the economy in a far reaching/come up with a national plan kinda way.  Like much of what we study, we can understand isolated systems and behaviors.  With that useful knowledge we can proceed adjusting our courses in a million ways as we go along.  In the end, we just need to make something happen.  We need to CREATE and SHAPE what happens next, not predict it.

    In that way, it seems very freeing to not be under the constant pressure of the Down Jones average or the Fed rate cuts.  The world has always been more complex than that and we’re swimming in that complexity.

    Economic Soothsaying Dying with the Rest of The Economy

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    Jan 21
  • There’s something telling (to me at least) in IBM’s earnings report.  CNBC gives us this brief insight:

    Revenue in services, IBM’s largest business segment, dropped 4 percent, but IBM was able to ink $17.2 billion in new services contracts. That was a healthy showing that demonstrates companies are still forking out for outsourcing and other technical support contracts, which are often viewed as moneysavers in the long run.

    Hardware revenue fell 18 percent. Mainframe revenue fell 6 percent, and sales of lower-end servers based on industry-standard processors fell 32 percent.

    “IBM has enjoyed certain attributes that other tech stocks don’t enjoy. They have recurring revenue streams that also translate into profitability,” said Keith Wirtz, chief investment officer for Fifth Third Asset Management. “That’s great for IBM and that’s one of the reasons why, in today’s uncertain environment, IBM’s a very attractive name to hold.”

    Hardware and big cash outlay technical things aren’t going to work in the short term. There’s going to be very little investment in non-core development and experimental concepts.  This is about function, utility and making it work.

    Friends and peers ask me what I think are some strategies for online media and tech companies in light of all this.  As IBM is doing… cut costs via software and services efficiencies.  Pretty straightfoward.  If you are worker, agency, contractor, employee that provides software services more cheaply than others, you’re going to do fine.  The same was true in the dotcom bust.  Those folks that could accomplish the work of 3 and not need a “top of line computer” to do it, maintained a healthy paycheck and a pretty decent workload.

    This is the year of maintenance, not upgrade or investment. (look at Microsoft’s earnings or Apple’s.)  Reruns, nights in, used cars, after market tickets, ebay…

    Advertising will be in the tank for awhile.

    Hardware will be in the tank.

    Financial services built on non core purchase money will be in the tank.

    Services that make it cheaper to live, work, travel will thrive.  For developers and media people, it’s time to focus on service infrastructure.

    This isn’t too tough.  It’s about sausage making and if that isn’t sexy to you, probably best to take a vacation this year.

    Media and Tech Strategies in 2009

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    Jan 21
  • Outside of the oath and benediction speech, the Jason Wu designed dress was the most discussed, blogged, reported media factoid during this crazy inauguration.

    Jason Wus Michelle Obama Dress
    Jason Wu's Michelle Obama Dress

    So what’s all that free press worth?

    So far, almost no traffic reported on Jason Wu’s site up until Jan 20th.

    By the fact that the site is even up means perhaps not much internet business comes from all this press.

    Google Trends shows a nice spike, but the name Jason Wu doesn’t even come close to Superbowl or inauguration.

    Jason Wu Michelle Obama Dress
    Jason Wu Michelle Obama Dress

    Unfortunately, we’re just going to have to wait and see what impact this worldwide acclaim has for a designer.  Perhaps fashion design is simply not measured accurately by online traffic.  I suspect with my somewhat educated knowledge of the fashion industry and media that his reputation is now very secure and that will be a very lucrative career.  He’s only 26!

    Jason Wu – Michelle Obama’s Impact on Business

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    Jan 21
  • New whitehouse.gov design
    New whitehouse.gov design???

    Check out the new White House site.  Just released.

    Much better than the old site.

    Man, what a subtle but important change we’ll get with government, I hope.  Websites that don’t suck.

    Couple of notes: They need SEO help.  The pagetitles aren’t as descriptive as they could be.  i.e. the blog is just called “blog”, not White House Blog.  Oh well.

    It’s not clear how to get the alerts.  the one little email box is not clear enough.

    The use of YouTube as the video solution is a bit weird for me.  You’d think they’d want direct control over that asset.

    The use of the giant mantel up top is a fad.  in 2 years sites like that will look dated, hopefully they will keep updating the design.  Hopefully it won’t look as dated as that 1997 screenshot above. hahahaha

    CNN’s coverage here.

    Good Sign for Government Web Design

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    Jan 20
  • If you’re looking for Obama’s Inaugration speech transcript ABC news has a decent page with it. CNN does as well.

    The BENEDICTION transcript is presented below.

    watch the video:

    or read the transcript (I found it in the comments posted below [thanks!] and here):

    Transcript courtesy Federal News Service

    God of our weary years, God of our silent tears, thou who has brought us thus far along the way, thou who has by thy might led us into the light, keep us forever in the path, we pray, lest our feet stray from the places, our God, where we met thee, lest our hearts, drunk with the wine of the world, we forget thee. Shadowed beneath thy hand may we forever stand — true to thee, O God, and true to our native land.

    We truly give thanks for the glorious experience we’ve shared this day. We pray now, O Lord, for your blessing upon thy servant, Barack Obama, the 44th president of these United States, his family and his administration. He has come to this high office at a low moment in the national and, indeed, the global fiscal climate. But because we know you got the whole world in your hand, we pray for not only our nation, but for the community of nations. Our faith does not shrink, though pressed by the flood of mortal ills.

    For we know that, Lord, you’re able and you’re willing to work through faithful leadership to restore stability, mend our brokenness, heal our wounds and deliver us from the exploitation of the poor or the least of these and from favoritism toward the rich, the elite of these.

    We thank you for the empowering of thy servant, our 44th president, to inspire our nation to believe that, yes, we can work together to achieve a more perfect union. And while we have sown the seeds of greed — the wind of greed and corruption, and even as we reap the whirlwind of social and economic disruption, we seek forgiveness and we come in a spirit of unity and solidarity to commit our support to our president by our willingness to make sacrifices, to respect your creation, to turn to each other and not on each other.

    And now, Lord, in the complex arena of human relations, help us to make choices on the side of love, not hate; on the side of inclusion, not exclusion; tolerance, not intolerance.

    And as we leave this mountaintop, help us to hold on to the spirit of fellowship and the oneness of our family. Let us take that power back to our homes, our workplaces, our churches, our temples, our mosques, or wherever we seek your will.

    Bless President Barack, First Lady Michelle. Look over our little, angelic Sasha and Malia.

    We go now to walk together, children, pledging that we won’t get weary in the difficult days ahead. We know you will not leave us alone, with your hands of power and your heart of love.

    Help us then, now, Lord, to work for that day when nation shall not lift up sword against nation, when tanks will be beaten into tractors, when every man and every woman shall sit under his or her own vine and fig tree, and none shall be afraid; when justice will roll down like waters and righteousness as a mighty stream.

    Lord, in the memory of all the saints who from their labors rest, and in the joy of a new beginning, we ask you to help us work for that day when black will not be asked to get back, when brown can stick around — (laughter) — when yellow will be mellow — (laughter) — when the red man can get ahead, man — (laughter) — and when white will embrace what is right.

    Let all those who do justice and love mercy say amen.

    AUDIENCE: Amen!

    REV. LOWERY: Say amen —

    AUDIENCE: Amen!

    REV. LOWERY: — and amen.

    AUDIENCE: Amen! (Cheers, applause.)

    ————-

    My thoughts:

    Good news!  Non believers got some representation!

    For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus – and non-believers.

    There’s a particularly elegant quip on power:

    Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

    I also thought this bit in the benediction was good:

    When the tanks are beaten into tractors

    Good stuff.

    Now back to work.

    Share around for others to find it…

    add to del.icio.us :: Add to Blinkslist :: add to furl :: Digg it :: add to ma.gnolia :: Stumble It! :: add to simpy :: seed the vine :: :: :: TailRank :: post to facebook

    President Obama’s Inauguration Speech Transcript and Dr. Joseph E. Lowery’s Benediction Transcript

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    Jan 20
  • When the inauguration is over will the work really begin?

    It is a strange thing to me that while we sink trillions of taxpayer dollars into bailouts and rail against AIG (and others) for spending frivolously, we then throw one of the biggest inaugurations ever.  Who pays for that?

    What about the loss of productivity today?  at least 3 hours of corporate time for each person… what about the government work not getting done?

    I’m obviously not the first to note this.  And, no, I did not agree with the expense when GWB spent a similar amount last go around.

    Let’s celebrate modestly and get on with the real work.

    Post Inauguration Work

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    Jan 20
  • There’s a bit of a rant against Belkin paying people to talk positively about their products in reviews on commerce sites.

    Users cry foul.  Blogs rail. Someone will probably get fired or reprimanded.

    [Update 1/19/09: And here’s the letter from the CEO.  Read between the lines.  Someone got in trouble]

    And it’s all over something that’s the oldest trick in the book. And is used far more than bloggers, magazines, advertisers, publishers, tv studios and users want to admit.

    In fact, TechCrunch is one of the biggest offenders.  Sure, it doesn’t post payment terms on Mechanical Turk, but it does definitely feature favorable / traffic generating articles for a specific set of companies and products.  Maybe it’s only out of proximity to silicon valley or the network of connections of its author but it’s still biased and borderline advertorial.

    Let’s get real, people.

    Advertorial is a fact of the media and retail ecology.  There are certainly more aggressive efforts by some (such as Belkin) but I have yet to meet an ad agency that doesn’t employ an “organic positive word of mouth” strategy.

    It’s called promotion, folks.  It’s worked very well for info-mercials (paid actors dramatizing the product).  It’s worked very well for direct marketing.

    How is it functionality different than the individual users who post on Amazon or New Egg BEFORE a product even hits the streets?  Typically big brands have this positive fan base that will say anything that produce WILL be good, regardless of whether they use the product or not.  Do these same ranters have a problem with that?  Just think back to the huge amount of traffic Techcrunch and other bloggers received for SPECULATING on the iphone.

    There seems to be some line advertisers can’t cross.  Some sacred “collective intelligence” tools should not be used for “dramatized promotion.” Yet, Google, the portal homepages, most tech magazines, news, tv shows, and almost all of Press Releases are full of this over-the-line-corruption-of-the-users-domain.

    Speaking of press releases… is the whole idea of press release just as offensive?  Press release pose as news but are nothing more than advertorial.  Have you ever written a press release? ever been quoted in one?  The whole thing is fairly questionable.  Yet, the news media lives on press releases.

    Again, let’s keep it real.

    The vast wealth so far created online is mostly due to this battle between ad dollars corrupting the user domain.  Why else would VCs and big companies fund these online companies if there wasn’t some advertising game to play?  The only reasons to develop online services is to get eyeballs or sell products.  The only reason you want eyeballs is to sell products.

    Is there some line we can draw that says it’s “false advertising” or a subversion of the trust of the public?  I don’t think so.

    No online product that allows user contributions and expects to make money running ads or selling products can escape the scourage of dramatized promotion.  Nor should it want to.  You probably don’t matter as a service if people don’t try to abuse your system.

    Advertorial is wrong? Crunchgear meet Kettle.

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    Jan 17
  • Check out what I just put out to the world:

    Get some perspective

    get some perspective with the social bucket list application, need perspective, on facebook.

    This is really just a labor of love.  Life’s very short.  I have some 15,000 days left.  I plan to exhaust my bucket list.

    Do you?

    Perspective: Get some. Give some.

    Need perspective in this time of change?

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    Jan 17
  • Below is a Washingtonpost.com article from 1-15-09 that encapsulates the events on the Hudson River in NYC that allowed 155 people to walk away for a ditched water landing in extremely chilly conditions.

    (If you don’t like this particular description of events, pick another from the 1032 that were on the web by that evening. Any assessment will work for the questions I am raising under the sub titled heading that precedes the article.)

    Determined but unpredictable

    A Water Landing

    An unlikely event plays out on the Hudson River


    Friday, January 16, 2009; Page A18

    THE NEXT TIME you’re tempted to ignore a flight attendant’s plea to direct your attention to the front of the cabin for safety instructions, remember yesterday’s dramatic Hudson River landing of U.S. Airways Flight 1549. The aircraft had just taken off from New York’s La Guardia Airport en route to Charlotte when both engines were reportedly knocked out after being hit by birds following takeoff. Remarkably, the 150 passengers, two pilots and three flight attendants were rescued.

    This crash could have been so much worse. That it wasn’t is a testament to a number of actors in the drama, particularly the pilots, that unfolded above the river’s frigid waters. By all accounts, the pilots brought the Airbus 320 down in a controlled manner, and the crew prepared passengers during what little time they had. A passenger interviewed on television said, “We hit hard!” But because of the pilots’ actions, the plane neither broke apart on impact nor sank quickly. One can only imagine the fear inside the cabin, especially after water started to fill it. That everyone got off the plane without life-threatening injury, despite the bone-chilling air and water temperatures, speaks of their pulling together in a time of crisis. The stretch of the Hudson where Flight 1549 went down is served by a constant flow of ferries between Manhattan and New Jersey. Within minutes of the plane’s entering the water, eyewitnesses said, boats were on scene to help pull passengers to safety until New York law enforcement could get there to lead the rescue.

    Federal investigators will examine the plane to find out what exactly happened. But the lesson for everyone in all this is to pay attention to those preflight instructions. “In the unlikely event of a water landing” now has special resonance.

    The events of the day were just as you heard or read about in the media. 81 tons of metal with millions of interconnected parts and environment physics malfunctioned after take off. No one has paused long enough to pose and extend answers to any of three questions…

    Do you believe this was a set of miracles or a consequence of the 437 hours of training of the pilot and crew?” Pick one…

    After a problem was detected by the pilot and co-pilot, did their behavior or intervention of Allah, Buddha, God, chance or karma etc., result in the plane landing as it did in the river?” Select the interventionist you favor…

    Did the pilot and crew depend on any other agency, including the tower, to do what they did? Select a contributor to their set of results…

    Can you explain why the consequences of this aviation event were what they were and other aviation events ended had less desirable consequences?” Please respond and share your views, beliefs and theories…

    Determined but unpredictable Hudson River landing

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    Jan 16
  • [Update 1/20:  Here we see new details coming out on this flight… so does this change the evaluation of the consequences and behavior?]

    Most reports on the Hudson Plane Landing are very much a praise of the crew and the captain. For good reason.

    Ah, contingencies of context.   We’re assigning value to the pilots actions based on the consequences.  Perhaps if the plane had trouble with the water landing we would be criticizing his methods.

    Consider this statement from the report:

    The pilot and air traffic controller discussed options, including landing at Teterboro airport in New Jersey, the official said. Then there was a “period of time where there was no communications back, and I’m assuming he was concentrating on more important things.”

    How many times have we heard after a tragedy that this same lack of communication resulted in the disaster?

    So now, is it better to concentrate and non communicate with the controller?

    For amazement, view some of the social network shots and stories.

    Would we praise the hudson river pilot the same if the outcome were different?

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    Jan 16
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