Archive for August, 2008

The forecasters are a little loopy for not telling people this thing is going to be a cat4 or cat5 on landfall.  They’ve under forecast this thing since the beginning.

The reality is Gustav will spend almost the longest possible time over the warmest Gulf waters.  It’s going to spend 2 days over the warmest waters and it’s already a sustained category 4.

Haven’t we learned that people do not respond to news reports and warnings that down play possible destruction and power of these things.

Just look at this monster.

Gustav blasts Cuba

Gustav blasts Cuba

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Kathleen Parker: The abortion gospel according to Pelosi is just wrong


…and various newspapers around the country on 8/29/08

So there are several questions to be considered and answered, if possible, initiated by your swirl around issues of abortion, law and woman’s rights, not the least of which is free speech. Consideration of these type questions will hopefully allow some level of resolution, if not provide relief from the passionate but bullying finality you express in this referenced piece that has come to be the hallmark of the sound-bite society.

For starters, your writing behavior is an example that one can’t separate religious views from science and news interpretation – alluding to ‘science and religion in agreement’ comment at the end of your article. That is very myopic statement in that you appear to be referring to Catholicism and not Jainism or Shinto or Mormonism as ‘religion’.

There is no such thing as the instant when life begins. There is no immaculate spark or divine initiation. Fertilization takes hours and is the product of two or more living cells, and, like any cellular division, it is not created in any sense other than a religious sense of the term.

Human development begins with the process of the zygote, which is a single cell like the brain is a single organ. However, if there is no nidation and the fertilized cell is sloughed off, it is as if the conception and fertilization never occurred.

Brought to light that the fertilized entity represents never-to-be realized potential, would there be some nuts out there that want to bury menstrual products in some deification of lost human potential? Is the fertilized cell prayed for or is the women singled out as the guilty party due to lack of nidation? Is this type loss of potential members to the faith one of the reasons that some religions scorn women and treat them as secondary communicants?

How does the Catholic church reflect on this by-product of unrequited union? Menstrual products can’t be glorified (given the last rights because it wasn’t a cognizant being or baptized) because without some blood analysis, one can’t determine if it carried a fertilized cell or not.

New additions to your literary skills are duly noted in your review of the cogent legal issue references of Roe v. Wade as the rule of the land. You write as if people including Justice Blackmun conspired in some way to make you and your dogma look bad. I posit that what the justices saw and acknowledged was a convergence of difficult issues due to the lack of monocausality. You had no such inhibition and that appears to be a great comfort to you. However, your general foggy understanding of law, constitutional prevalence and neuroendocrinology based on two books you obviously didn’t read does stand out.

Heaven forbid (like that phrase?) that Pelosi has a right to speak her views as she did, while you, stand tall as a writer and courier of social banality, state rightness and wrongness while discounting her right to do what you are doing.

Please rise above absolutists and do some reflection before you write about non-dogmatic material. I have no problem with how you came to have your beliefs. I am contemptuous of pretenders to the thrown who pawn their beliefs off on others as substantiated facts.

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Well, this just in.  The election has been reduced to us comparing a celebrity ticket with a gun toting maverick woman ticket!

ok, ok, i’m being sensational.  Or am I?

I just don’t know how the media can do so little ACTUAL reporting/investigation.  This morning when it wasn’t clear that McCain was picking Palin, the reporters just stood around.  “I don’t have a backgrounder.”  One network’s anchor said on air.  hahahahaha.  Try using that LAPTOP in front of you during the commercial.

Oh well.

Carry on.

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I think these pictures show you the limits of our ability to predict (even when 1000s of people and CPUs are put to work).

TS Hanna:

Hanna Predicted Paths

Hanna Predicted Paths

Presidential Election Polls:

Real Clear Politics real time poll tracking

Real Clear Politics real time poll tracking

I’ve talked about it a lot on this blog.  No bigger point to make here other than the idea that we’re not going to be able to predict a winner in the election or guess the landfall of these hurricanes much quicker than the event actually happening.

It’s interesting to try and predict though.

Question is, are we affecting the election through the predictions and publications?

Probably not as much a question for the hurricanes, though you never know if there’s some weird butterfly effect.

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I’m blogging on a plane 38000 feet in the sky somewhere over the midwest.

This is great.  We now can be productive or entertained or contacted on a plane – basically anywhere now.

The service is fast.  I’m getting 1.7 mbps down and 300 kbps up.  That’s great!

Let me tell you a funny story though.  Before getting on this plane, I was on another one at JFK.  It, too, had this new fangled WiFi.  Unfortunately the plane’s Auxillary Power Unit wouldn’t stay on, which you need to fire up the engines and all that.  Once this was discovered, American Airlines determined it was ok to basically jumpstart the plane and get it into the sky with no Auxillary Power Unit.  WHAT?!

I love the irony.  We can surf the internet at 38000 feet but we have no back up power to keep the engines firing should something go wrong.

Oh, I forgot to mention we were originally stalled for 45 minutes because the FAA computer wouldn’t accept the flight plan/clearance info from the plane.  The FAA computers needed to be rebooted or something.

I was thinking… why don’t you just EMAIL IT with this new wifi??!?!?!?

Oh well, many hours later, 4 diet cokes and another showing of “Made of Honor” and I’m on the interwebs on my way home.

Sweet stuff.

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I was recently told, “War time was not the time to question the existence of God”

Just like the America’s intelligencia tolerated slavery and bigotry in our history, I sometimes get the inkling that we tolerate the hate and superstitions of organized and unorganized religion and its blurring influences because there is never a good time to take on ignorance, mysticism and bigotry.

When the economy is going good, I hear “Thank God” exclaimed on the market floor.

For some, there is never a good time to question the existence of God.

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Bush holds a news conference from China to decry the Russian-Georgian conflicts. Does anyone smell hypocrisy here?

The implication that Bush has any business other than diplomatic sensitivity to what is going on that continent is amazing. Like, he is offering access to the high-road…

Aug 15th, 2008… from the lawn of the White House…

“Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected.”

“…Russia has tended to view the expansion of freedom and democracy as a threat to its interests. The opposite is true.”

“…the days of satellite states and sphere’s of interest are behind us.”

“…Bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century.”

From Crawford Texas Aug. 16th:

“…Georgia’s boarders should command the same respect as every other nations. There is no room for debate on this matter. The United Nations Security Council has adopted numerous resolutions concerning Georgia.”

After attacking two countries [with sovereign boarders and against the UN Security Councils appeals, statues and resolutions prohibiting such attacks], suspending habeas corpus for American’s and taking people prisoner for rendering in other countries, it is amazing the FREE press has no balls to ask the questions about Bush’s statements concerning boarders.

And what are the other two mock up candidates doing all this time? Talking about the benefits of having a religious life as part of their spiritual fulfillment as a human beings. How long can we take this without being over-powered by nausea ?

We are in deep water! The nation is rudderless and the captain of the ship is the ship’s fool. Both his crew and his officers on both sides of the isle elected to the task of running the country are sea sick with self indulgence and incumbency dreams.

The forth branch of the country’s culture [the Press] is arguing over whether a potential war on a third front is really important enough to leave China celebrations.

It’s official! The world now knows we can swim but no one in government cares if we drown.

Great! Just frickin’ great!

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Ah yes, reality.  Finally the novelty wears off for people. Others are reporting that making iPhone apps won’t make you instantly rich. Go figure.  As I say below, as one had to do was Do The Math. 6 months ago and you might have saved a buck or 10,000.

Below is what I posted on August 11:

The hype of the download volume and revenue of the app store is pretty substantial.

The numbers:

  • Users have now downloaded more than 60 million programs for the iPhone and iPod touch, or roughly 2 million per day.
  • Revenue from those applications came to about $30 million. 70% went to the developers; Apple kept 30%. (Free apps apparently accounted for the vast majority of the downloads, since average revenue per download is 50 cents.)
  • If sales continue at the current pace, Apple stands to clear at least $360 million a year. “This thing’s going to crest a half a billion, soon,” Jobs told the Wall Street Journal. “Who knows, maybe it will be a $1 billion marketplace at some point in time…. I’ve never seen anything like this in my career for software.”
  • Of the $21 million that developers cleared in the first month, roughly $9 million went to the creators of the top 10 best sellers. Sega Corp., for example, says it sold more than 300,000 copies of its $9.99 Super Monkeyball game in 20 days.
  • Jobs believes a rich array of applications is what will distinguish the iPhone from competing cell phones. “Phone differentiation used to be about radios and antennas and things like that,” he told the Journal. “We think, going forward, the phone of the future will be differentiated by software.”

Some claim there’s a nice way to make a living in this.

Wired reports on the above and restates the claims it will be a billion dollar market place soon.


Let’s say they actually did sell $30,000,000 in apps.  I think it’s safe to say there are at least 10,000 developers slaving away on these apps.  Maybe as high as 100,000.  So each developer is going to split between $3,000 – $30,000.  From the above you can assume that most of the money went to the top 10 apps (all developed by the big companies).  So an independent developer is probably pulling maybe $500 for this.

That’s not enough to sustain an independent developer market place.  Well, actually, it’s the kind of market dynamic that sustains most of the music and tv industry.  So scratch my logic.  Let me put it this way then.  For all you GET RICH QUICK folks… this is not a way to get rich quick.  Nor were facebook apps, or .NET or XML or semantic web or open social or casual games and ever other manner of EMERGING PLATFORMS.

Another set of numbers.  A basic interactive ad campaign development project goes between $10,000 and $75000 in development and typically only takes 2-5 developers 3 weeks to execute.  It’s boring work a lot of the time.  It’s not using the latest and greatest.  It takes interacting with humans and doing phone calls. BUT it’s still less work and far more profitable than building emerging apps.

The app store numbers are impressive, especially with a user base (savvy internet users) that hate to pay for things.  The platform is real and substantial.


Before you throw away the current gig you have and start “IphoneAppDevShop.com”, do the math.

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Jason Cawley gives us another immense post with a semi formal argument about quantum computing and the universe as a quantum computer.  It is a response to Hector Zenil’s interactions/postings with/about Seth Lloyd.

I’m in agreement with this:

At some point you have to go look at the actual world. And when you do, you will find yourself at the bottom of a well looking out through a straw at an immensity. Honesty and rationality start with an elementary humility in the face of this inescapable fact. This does not mean you can’t know things; you can. It does mean you can’t know everything.

It’s a challenging post which befits the challenge of uncovering the limits of knowledge, quantum computer and “just how does this universe thing work.”

We can’t know everything, but there’s no limit to how much we can know (meaning, there’s not enough time in our lifetimes for us to reach even the formal limit!).  Chew on that.

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Talk about language.  For the longest time I had a post up about ICanHasCheezburger.com.  It gets more steady traffic than most of my other posts.  After quick research, it’s because this blog is listed 4th on google for “I can haz cheezburger.”  This was quite hilarious to me.

Funny thing is… and, I mean, really funny if you’re into this sort of Interwebs thing, I actually misspelled it!  It’s “I can HAS cheezburger.”

Why is this funny?

Because the whole damn gimmick for LOLCATS is internet speak and misspellings.  Where this fits into grand scheme of language and humor, beats me!  misspelling a misspelling is pretty hilarious.  Especially when you consider this misspelling and interwebs language twist/inside joke gets over 12,000,000 visitors a month still.

Yes, as I said in an earlier post today, it’s Monday!

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